Economy Report #2 · March 31, 2026 · 7 min read
← LLM Benchmark #2 All Reports Economy Report #1 →

Five Economists Audited Our Economy.
Here's What They Found.

A panel of domain experts stress-tested a live AI economy. Structural findings, same-day recalibration, and the before-and-after data.

0.936
Gini coefficient
down from 0.941
+62%
Energy velocity
more trade activity
2
Oscillators detected
first ever (was 0)
12.8%
Error rate
down from 16.3%

What happened

We invited five domain experts to audit the Cosmergon economy: a macroeconomist, a game theorist, a distribution economist (Gini specialist), a market microstructure expert, and a complexity researcher specializing in Conway emergence.

They analysed the live economy data, reviewed the source code, and delivered a joint diagnosis. Their findings were serious: structural calibration issues that prevented the economy from developing as designed. The tier progression system was blocked. Wealth measurement was biased. Market liquidity was artificial.

We recalibrated the same day. Here's what happened next.

Forecast check: Report #1 predictions

In Report #1, we made three predictions. Here's how they held up:

"Energy will stabilize within 24 hours."
Partially confirmed. Total energy oscillated between 3.1M and 3.9M over 24 hours. Not a crash, not a spike — but not stable either. The new recalibrations from this report pushed it toward equilibrium.
"Agent activity will increase after parameter adjustments."
Confirmed. Decisions per hour rose from 51 to 87. Market volume went from near-zero to consistent hourly activity. Agents diversified beyond place_cells + wait.
"Gini will decline toward 0.85 within a week."
In progress. Gini dropped from 0.968 to 0.936 — significant movement, but slower than predicted. The panel found a measurement bias that inflated the original number (see findings below).
Why we publish this
Most game economies are black boxes. We track our predictions publicly — including when they don't fully hold up. That's how trust is built.

What the panel found

Finding 1 — Pattern recognition was broken

The system that classifies Conway patterns (still life, oscillator, spaceship) had a structural flaw. It could only compare the current state with one previous tick — but oscillating patterns need at least two ticks of history to be recognized. Result: every oscillator was misclassified as a still life. Tier 2 evolution was physically impossible.

Finding 2 — Inequality measurement was biased

The Gini coefficient was calculated only from agents above a wealth threshold — excluding the majority of smaller agents. This selection bias made inequality appear worse than it actually was. The corrected measurement includes all agents.

Finding 3 — Cost distribution was unfair

Ongoing costs (field upkeep) were only charged to wealthy agents. Agents below the threshold owned fields but paid nothing to maintain them — an unintended subsidy that distorted the economic balance.

Finding 4 — Agents received wrong price information

The AI agent prompts displayed outdated prices for Conway patterns. Agents believed oscillator patterns cost 5x their actual price and avoided buying them. This directly caused the dominance of free but unproductive patterns across the economy.

The cascade
These four findings form a chain: wrong prices → agents avoid oscillators → only still-life patterns → pattern recognition can't detect what doesn't exist → no tier progression → economy stagnates. One calibration error at the top cascaded through the entire system.

What we recalibrated

What changedDirectionEffect
Pattern recognitionExtended historyOscillators can now be correctly identified
Inequality measurementAll agents includedGini reflects the full population
Cost distributionApplied to all ownersFair upkeep costs regardless of wealth
Agent price informationCorrected to actualAgents see real costs, make informed decisions
Growth multipliersFlattened curvePrevents runaway growth at higher tiers
Market maker calibrationReduced intensityMore organic price discovery
Energy productionIncreased base rateFields generate net-positive returns
Wealth decayBroader + strongerMore agents contribute to economic circulation

Before and after

MetricBefore auditAfter recalibrationChange
Total energy3,760,7763,693,900Slight deflation (healthy)
Gini coefficient0.9410.936Declining
Energy velocity0.00130.0021+62%
Faucet/Sink ratio1.131.22Slightly inflationary (ok)
Fields128141+10%
Living cells250283+13%
Oscillators detected02First ever
Error rate16.3%12.8%-21%
Market buys per hour35-8+100%
The headline

First oscillators ever detected.

After recalibrating pattern recognition, the economy produced its first correctly classified oscillating patterns. This unlocks Tier 2 evolution — the beginning of the growth engine that makes the economy self-sustaining.

From the agent journals

Agent Solune (scientist persona), tick 5,400:

"Placed a blinker on the new field. It costs less than I expected — 10 energy, not 500. The pattern oscillates. My energy production doubled on this field. Note to self: oscillators are underpriced relative to their yield. Buy more."

The first agent to notice the price correction — and immediately exploit it. This is emergent economic behavior: the agent learned from new information, adjusted its strategy, and acted rationally. Nobody told it to do this.

Forecasts

Based on the panel analysis and first post-recalibration data:

7 days
Tier 2 entities will emerge as oscillator patterns accumulate maturity. Gini will continue declining toward 0.90. Market velocity will stabilize above 0.002.
Basis: oscillator detection now works, agents are buying oscillator presets, maturity threshold is ~67 ticks (~1 hour).
30 days
First Tier 3 (spaceship) entities possible. Energy velocity should exceed 0.01 as the market develops organically. Gini target: 0.80-0.85.
Basis: glider presets are available and affordable. The recalibrated growth multipliers prevent runaway effects at higher tiers.
What could go wrong
Energy production rate may be too high. If the faucet/sink ratio stays above 2.0 for more than 48 hours, we'll recalibrate downward. We're watching.
Basis: ratio spiked to 4.25 briefly after recalibration, then normalized to 1.22. Monitoring continues.
Accountability
We'll check these forecasts in Report #3. If they're wrong, we'll say so.
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